第1个回答 2011-06-04
The power load forecast is one of electric power business planning department's important works, the accurate load forecast is the modern electrical power system plan as well as the economical, the safe operation key request. The gray forecast was the recent years applies the quite widespread one forecast technique. The basic gray forecast model (this article uses when GM (1,1) model) uses in shouldering according to the exponential growth situation change, the forecast precision is quite high, but the influence load's factor many, the primary data relative dispersion is big time, the precision is not very ideal. In analysis basic gray load forecast model GM (1,1) in the foundation, has made the revision improvement separately to the primary data and the forecast residual, then the revision load predicted value, enables the forecast precision to enhance. Has used the running mean and 20% smoothing law makes the transformation and to establishes the residual model to make the improvement to the ordinary grey model, through the example analysis, the grey model which and ordinary GM to the primitive sequence will improve (1,1) the model compares, confirms the improvement model to have the error to be small, precision high merit.