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Question

从表1可以看出，对于确定性的数据，建模时采用远近相同原则和厚近薄远的原则优选出的A值是一样的；而对非确定性的数据，总体上看二种原则优选出的平滑系数不一样的。对非确定性的数据，当B时，采用远近相同原则和厚近薄远的原则优选出的平滑系数值是一样的；当C时，二种原则优选出的平滑系数有差别，从D开始差别较明显， E愈小，差别愈大。
通过考察厚近薄远原则所选用的公式F ，可以看出G取值是非常关键的。改变H值可以改变厚近薄远的程度，决定不同时期历史数据的模型误差对预测结果的影响。I 值非常小时，将会使较远的模型误差对最终预测结果的影响几乎为零；J 取值越大，其优选的结果越来越靠近于采用远近相同原则的优选结果，换句话说，K 取值越大，厚近薄远的效果越弱。

Answer 1

From table 1 can see, for certainty of data, modeling the same principles and thick far and near BoYuan principle is used to make A value is the same; And for the uncertain data, on the whole two principle is used to make smooth coefficient not the same. The uncertain of the data, when B, the same principles and thick far and near the principle of BoYuan method and the coefficient of the smooth, is the same; When C, two principle is used to make a difference, smooth coefficient from D began to difference is more apparent, the smaller the difference, the E.
By investigating the thick BoYuan principle for the use of nearly formula, it can be seen that the G F values are critical. Change H value can change near the extent of the BoYuan thick, decided to different period of historical data model to predict the influence of the error. I value very hour, will make far away on final prediction model error influence on the result of the almost to zero; J, the greater the optimal values of the results in the same far more and more close to the principle of selecting the results, in other words, K value, the greater the effect of nearly BoYuan thick weaker.