第1个回答 2013-10-06
Syria’s chemical weapons: Distrust and verify
叙利亚的化学武器的不信任和验证
NEVER surrender the initiative. In handling Bashar Assad’s use of chemical weapons in Syria, Barack Obama has twice broken this basic rule of diplomacy. First the president submitted his administration’s muddled case for reprisals to a vote in a hostile Congress. Now he has handed the steering-wheel to Vladimir Putin, Russia’s president and no friend of America. Mr Putin is championing a scheme to disarm Syria’s poison gas and nerve agents.
永不放弃主动权。在处理叙利亚的化学武器的使用巴沙尔阿萨德，巴拉克奥巴马曾两次打破外交这一基本规则。第一次总统提交了自己的管理混乱的情况下在一个充满敌意的国会投票的报复。现在他把方向盘，弗拉迪米尔普京，俄罗斯总统并没有美国的朋友。普京先生倡导的一种解除叙利亚的毒气和神经毒剂的方案。
Disarmament might yet work. But the danger is that Mr Assad will be free to duck and feint until what little determination there is to punish him dissipates like sarin in the Damascus breeze. To regain control, Mr Obama and his allies in the West should seek a tight UN resolution instructing Syria to co-operate. If either Mr Assad or Mr Putin cynically obstructs the UN, then America should even now be ready to strike.
裁军会工作。但危险的是，阿萨德先生将免费鸭和假直到有惩罚他什么决心消散喜欢在大马士革微风沙林。重新获得控制权，奥巴马先生和他的西方盟友应该寻求一个紧密的联合国决议指导叙利亚合作。如果阿萨德先生或普京先生地阻挠联合国，那么美国应该现在准备罢工。
The best outcome of all
最好的结果
Russia’s proposal came after John Kerry, Mr Obama’s secretary of state, told a press conference, in a throwaway remark, that the Syrian regime could escape a strike only if it gave up its chemical weapons—not that it ever would. Russia seized on his words and proposed precisely that. Mr Assad, it said, should agree to the eradication of his chemical weapons under Russia and UN supervision. That would stop him launching another nerve-agent attack like the one on August 21st that killed almost 1, 500 people. It would prove that the world will not tolerate chemical warfare. And, after months spent talking past each other, the great powers would at last have a chance to work together in the UN to end Syria’s bloodshed.
俄罗斯的建议后，约翰克里，奥巴马的国务卿，一个新闻发布会上说，在一个一次性的话，说，叙利亚政权只能放弃化学武器不是它会逃离罢工。俄罗斯抓住了他的话，并提出了精确。阿萨德先生，它说，应该同意他的化学武器消灭俄罗斯和联合国的监督下。那将阻止他推出另一神经毒气攻击就像八月二十一日杀死近1人，500人。这将证明，世界将不会容忍化学战。及后，花了数个月的时间各执一词，大国最终将有机会一起工作，在联合国终止叙利亚的流血事件。
The plan is seductive because it serves so many interests. Mr Assad would avoid an American strike of possibly devastating severity. He would also gain a rare chance to look reasonable—or, at least, more reasonable than Syria’s al-Qaeda-infested rebels. In a display of statesmanship, Mr Putin could point out that diplomacy can achieve so much more than the West’s knee-jerk calls for regime change. To some, that would redeem his support of Mr Assad during the brutal civil war. Mr Obama would be spared the likely humiliation of defeats over Syria in Congress. He could claim that his brilliant strategy has borne fruit. American voters, relieved not to be going to war yet again, might even believe him.
该计划是因为它有很多很多的利益诱惑。阿萨德先生将避免毁灭性的严重程度可能发动袭击。他还将至少获得一个难得的机会，看起来合理的或，，更合理的比叙利亚的基地组织出没的叛军。在显示的政治家，普京先生也指出，外交可以获得比西方的本能要求改变政权更多。对一些人来说，这将挽救他的支持阿萨德先生的残酷的内战期间。奥巴马先生就败在叙利亚国会可能羞辱。他声称他辉煌的战略奏效了。美国选民，不要去战争又轻松，甚至相信他。
Unfortunately, though, the chances are that something will go wrong. Even if all sides enter into the agreement in good faith, the practicalities are daunting (see article). Any operation to destroy Syria’s arsenal could take years. While civil war rages, it will be hard to protect UN inspectors and for them to have access to all Syria’s chemical sites. Trust is almost non-existent, so the inspectors will need the freedom to go where they choose when they choose. That will be hard, too.
不幸的是，虽然，很有可能会出什么事。即使双方都进入了诚信协议，实际是巨大的（见文章）。任何手术，摧毁叙利亚的阿森纳可能需要几年的时间。在内战爆发，这将是很难保护联合国核查人员，他们可以访问所有叙利亚的化工网站。信任是几乎不存在，因此检查员需要自由的地方去，他们选择他们选择。那将是艰巨的，太。
What if good faith is lacking? Saddam Hussein showed in Iraq how a regime that is minded to be awkward can play cat and mouse with weapons inspectors. The scope for Mr Assad to frustrate disarmament without ever rejecting it outright is almost infinite. Thanks to the past few weeks, he now knows that voters in the West have no stomach for striking Syria. The British prime minister suffered a defeat in parliament. The French president, a hero for dispatching troops to Mali at the start of this year, is apparently a zero for wanting to strike Mr Assad. Mr Obama’s efforts to convince his countrymen of the case for going to war seem so far only to have strengthened their desire to stay at home.
如果诚信缺失？萨达姆侯赛因展示了如何在伊拉克，头脑是尴尬的政权与武器核查人员玩猫和老鼠。范围为阿萨德挫败裁军没有拒绝它完全几乎是无限的。在过去的几周，他现在知道在西方选民不想打击叙利亚。英国首相在议会遭到失败。法国总统，为出兵马里今年年初的英雄，显然是想打击阿萨德一零。奥巴马先生努力说服他的案件的农民战争似乎到目前为止只有加强了他们想呆在家里。
A vague, open-ended plan would therefore be a blueprint for Mr Assad to get away with his crime. So long as he made a few conciliatory gestures and refrained from another chemical attack, he would be able to hang on to at least some of his chemical weapons. He would also be freer than ever to do his worst against his own people, certain that no outside power was about to step in to protect them.
一个模糊的，开放式的计划也因此成为阿萨德先生离开他的罪行的蓝图。只要他做了一些和解姿态，没有另一个化学攻击，他会坚持至少他的一些化学武器。他也将自由比以往做他最反对自己的人，肯定没有外部力量正要去保护他们。
第2个回答 2013-10-18
叙利亚的化学武器：不信任和验证
叙利亚化武危机：从怀疑到验证
绝不投降的主动权。在处理巴沙尔·阿萨德在叙利亚使用化学武器，奥巴马曾两次打破这个基本规则的外交。首先，布什总统提交了混乱的情况下，他的政府的报复，在一个充满敌意的国会表决。现在，他已经交给了方向盘俄罗斯总统普京和美国没有朋友。普京倡导计划解除武装叙利亚的毒气和神经毒剂。
裁军谈判可能还没有工作。但危险的是，阿萨德先生将鸭和佯攻，直到有多大决心，以惩罚他在大马士革的微风，如沙林消散。为了重新获得控制权，奥巴马和他的盟友在西方应该寻求紧密的联合国决议，指示叙利亚合作。如果阿萨德先生或普京玩世不恭妨碍联合国，那么美国应该即使现在准备罢工。
最好的结局
最好的结果
俄罗斯的建议后，奥巴马的国务卿约翰·克里，在记者招待会上，暴殄天物的话，那只有当它放弃了化学武器，不在于它永远将叙利亚政权能逃脱罢工。俄罗斯抓住他的话，恰恰是提出。阿萨德先生说，应该同意他的化学武器消灭俄罗斯和联合国的监督下。这将启动另一个像一个8月21日，杀害了近1 ，500人的神经毒剂攻击阻止他。这将证明，这个世界不会容忍化学战。而且，经过几个月花在谈论对方的过去，伟大的权力将有机会在联合国共同努力，结束叙利亚的流血。
该计划是诱人的，因为它是如此多的利益。阿萨德先生将避免一个美国打击可能是毁灭性的严重性。他也将获得一个难得的机会，寻找合理的，至少，更合理，比叙利亚的基地组织（ al - Qaeda ）出没的叛军。在显示政治家，普京指出，外交可以实现这么多比西方的下意识的呼吁政权更迭。一些人认为，这会赎回他支持阿萨德先生在残酷的内战。奥巴马将不遗余力击败了叙利亚在国会中可能出现的屈辱。他声称，他辉煌的战略已见成效。美国选民，不是去打仗又释然，甚至可能会相信他的话。
不幸的是，虽然，很有可能会出错。即使双方签订的协议，以诚信，实际是艰巨（见文章） 。任何操作摧毁叙利亚的阿森纳可能需要数年时间。虽然内战肆虐，这将是很难的，以保护联合国核查人员，并为他们访问叙利亚的所有化学网站。信托几乎是不存在的，所以，检查员将需要去的地方，他们选择时，他们选择的自由。这将是硬，太。
如果缺乏真诚？表明在伊拉克萨达姆·侯赛因政权如何是志同道合尴尬的武器核查人员可以玩猫捉老鼠。阿萨德先生没有拒绝它彻底挫败裁军的范围几乎是无限的。由于过去几周，他现在知道，在西方的选民没有胃打击叙利亚。英国首相在议会中遭遇了惨败。法国总统出兵马里在今年年初的英雄，显然是想打击阿萨德先生一个零。奥巴马努力说服他的同胞去打仗的情况下似乎，迄今只有加强他们的愿望留在家里。
一个模糊的，开放式的计划将因此摆脱阿萨德先生与他的犯罪的蓝图。只要他做了一些和解姿态，并没有另一种化学物质的攻击，他将能够挂到他的化学武器至少有一些。他也将是比以往任何时候都更自由地做他最糟糕的反对自己的人，肯定没有外部电源的介入，以保护他们。